Global Warming

dinosaur

troublemaker
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I was looking for a place to best put this topic and couldn't find it. I chose this one because it is not a political view or discussion of politics unless you are openly liberal or conservative. This doesn't make you a Democrat or Republican since some of the most liberal people I have known are Republicans and some of the most conservative are Democrats.

The actual topic is Global Warming. What are your views and have you actually investigated, scientifically, any of the claims made by some very famous people? Of course, fame does not make intelligence or Al Gore would not be involved.

Do you believe in the current theory that Man has altered the world in such a way as to create a global warming affect that will, by burning more fossil fuels, create a "greenhouse affect" that will destroy the planet?

I am much interested in this because I currently am involved in a study by some scientific chronies of mine to determine whether or not the news media over the last two decades has had an impact over the scientific community.

I realize that there are only a few true scientific minds in our community. That is perfect for me. I want to know if you are buying the Global Warming idea and, if so, why?

Please make your answers shorter than my request. I only have so much disk space.
 

Grandpa

Well-Known Member
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No scientific response here. Just the observations of a farmer/rancher who has had to go out daily and do chores whether the weather was 110 degrees or 40 below. Nothing since compares to the hot, dry weather of 1933-34. This weather report came from my father. However, the dry, hot era of the early 1950's, the early 1970's, the early 1990's and now, the current drowth of 2010-the present, all come close to the dust bowl era. ANYBODY see a non-scientific pattern? This observation is for the area I live and worked and is not indictive of what has taken place in other regions. Just as the current drowth in the western USA is not the same as the ice and snow in the east. IMHO, the weather is very cyclic and we have little effect on it unless we try to affect it. Gore is not an idiot because he made a fortune by appealing to peoples negativism. His theorys may be wrong but he is still very rich.
 

wvbreamfisherman

Active Member
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First, Gore has no theory. He's a snake oil salesman making big dollars off the rubes.

Second, the Global Warming (excuse me- its now Climate Change) models can't account for either the Medieval Warm Spell, nor the Little Ice Age. Mostly they just say either they never happened, or they simply disappear the numbers into the "adjusted" readings.

10,000 years age (a mere ice blink in the history of the earth) there was a mile or two ice of covering Central Ohio. Why did it melt? I'm pretty sure that the primitive human cultures at the time weren't burning enough fuel to cause it.

Third, the models don't account for the current "pause"- the apologists now are doing a bunch of hand waving and postulation about "heat sinks" in order to cover the fact that their models have made predictions at odds with reality.

My take (for what it's worth) is that the climate has been generally getting a bit warmer since the end of the little ice age, but that we're likely to see a significant solar minimum and possibly significant cooling (or at least continued leveling) for the next 20-40 years. The key seems to be sunspot activity as a proxy for solar activity. The last big solar minimum coincided with the little ice age.

I'd MUCH rather see continued mild warming, than a repeat of the Little Ice Age. (not that my preference matters a whit).
 

ppine

Forester
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We can all agree the climate is warming slightly. On the big scale changes in the Earth's orbit, tilt of the Earth on its axis and wobbling on its axis are examples of phenomena that can affect the Earth's climate. On a smaller scale, we have volcanic eruptions and forest fires as examples of processes that spew large quantities of gasses including CO2 into the atmosphere. When Krakatoa blew its top in about 1882, that the was the year that North America had no summer.

The open point is whether or not man's activities have had an affect on climate. The jury is still out on that one. Contrary to what the press and the media like to portray, it is very difficult to separate out the man-caused effects and the naturally occurring ones.
 

Pathfinder1

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No scientific response here. Just the observations of a farmer/rancher who has had to go out daily and do chores whether the weather was 110 degrees or 40 below. Nothing since compares to the hot, dry weather of 1933-34. This weather report came from my father. However, the dry, hot era of the early 1950's, the early 1970's, the early 1990's and now, the current drowth of 2010-the present, all come close to the dust bowl era. ANYBODY see a non-scientific pattern? This observation is for the area I live and worked and is not indictive of what has taken place in other regions. Just as the current drowth in the western USA is not the same as the ice and snow in the east. IMHO, the weather is very cyclic and we have little effect on it unless we try to affect it. Gore is not an idiot because he made a fortune by appealing to peoples negativism. His theorys may be wrong but he is still very rich.



Hi...


I am pretty much with you, Grandpa...!! :tinysmile_grin_t:
 

Grandpa

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We can all agree the climate is warming slightly. .
Actually, we can't agree on this either. Just depends on which set of lies you want to listen to. World weather temps have been slightly decreasing since 1998, per many national weather experts. I don't know because I'm not a national weather expert. I do know I hear both reports so someone is lying.
 

CozInCowtown

Moderator
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Goatneck, Texas
I think Global Warming of recent and Global Cooling of the 1070s is a political hoax.
That being said I firmly believe if we do not take care of our home (Earth) it will die.
Al Gore did not invent the internet but his minions did invent Global Hoaxing.
JMO,
DC
 

Bojib

Active Member
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Lexington, KY
I never watched Gore's presentation on Global Warming, but I did read the book. It is called "An Inconvenient Truth". I think the overall idea is great, use less, waste less, be cleaner more studious citizens of our environment. That being said, the data he presented was a little on the awful side. There was a lot of conjecturing going on there. The graphs used in the book are the same from the presentation I believe. That's the trouble, the graphs are visual, they make things looks bad, but when you analyze the graphs you see them for the garbage they are. It's tough to explain in a forum, but there was obviously a lot of clever manipulation of the data.

So, my take on Gore, he is a rich idiot in my opinion, but that doesn't lessen the overall message that we should be better to our environment.

I also think Climate Change is a much better description of what is going on. Why? Because a climate changes, that's what it does. It's just vague enough to work as a good description. I do believe that man has had some impact on our environment, but I don't think it is to the extent we are led to believe. Instead of the current rate of climate change being 100% the fault of human activity, I'm more inclined to think we are the cause of 1% of it. Or 1/10th of 1%. There really is no basis behind those numbers, just saying that regardless of human kind, the climate would be changing, but maybe we are providing a bit of a catalyst in speeding up the change.

Whether we are responsible for a change in the rate of climate change or not, I still like the message that we should be better stewards of the environment. Not hippie, extreme tree hugging stewards, but we can do better than we are now. Not so much for environmental reasons, but just because it's the right thing to do.
 

ppine

Forester
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There are plenty of skeptics. Actually science thrives on skepticism because it keeps everyone honest. If you take the time to look up what is happening to the Earth's climate over time in the journals that keep track of such things there is a measurable increase of about 1 1/2 degrees C.

I studied meteorology in college and used to write air quality reports where we had to calculate the emissions from power plants, mine sites, additional cars on the road, etc. If you google "man-caused global warming" the results are highly mixed. I think it is presumptuous to think that we are changing the climate by our activities.
 

Newanderthal

Member
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903
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There are several issues that must first be resolved before people can really discuss the topic clearly.

In the beginning it was called "Global Climate Change". The media latched onto the idea that the average annual temp would be warmer so it was changed to "Global Warming". Then, every time a flake of snow fell, they pointed at it and said "how can it be warmer if cold still exists?". Now the scientific community is trying to get us back to calling it climate change and no one is listening.

Second, what Al Gore did was possibly the worst thing he could have done for raising awareness for climate change. He made a 'documentary' using falsified information and erroneous facts and turned the discussion into a political topic, instantly polarizing America rather than uniting.

That said, here's my two cents:
Climatologists have been warning us of the exact weather patterns we're seeing today since the 1970's. These are the same climatologists who coined the term "global climate change". So far, virtually everything they said and put into books since a decade before I was born is coming true right now.

We're not talking about a couple of fluke years back in the 30's where it got insanely hot, we're talking about entire decades of unrelenting heat, each year hotter than the last. 2005 was one of the hottest years on record. Ever. And every single record set in 2005 has since been shattered again and again. Currently, in the middle of winter, it's 72 degrees in North Carolina. The average global temperature is warmer than it's ever been since they started measuring, and it's been warming constantly for decades. This warming coincides directly with the increase of carbon in the atmosphere. Right now, there is more carbon in the air than at ANY TIME during human history. This isn't opinion. This is verifiable fact. This is an exact measurement.

One of the warning signs of increased temperatures is a weakened jet stream. The jet stream helps to contain the arctic winds that circle the North Pole. As the jet stream weakens, polar winds are able to push farther south, penetrating well into temperate and even subtropical climates, causing what is called a "polar vortex". This too was mentioned back in the 1970's and 80's. Harsh, violently changing winter is a warning sign of climate changer, but everyone wants to claim it's the opposite, a sign that it's all normal. I'm sorry, but seven inches of snow in Louisiana is anything but normal. So is drought.

We're getting blizzards in southern Texas, wildfires in Siberia, flooding in Pakistan, heat waves in the Carolinas in winter. Spring flowers are blooming in the winter, entire crops are burning up in the spring, migratory birds are changing their flight patterns and glaciers that had only receded 8 miles in over a hundred years are now receding at a rate of a mile per year. Places that have been covered in ice since before man walked the earth are now covered by grass and trees and people are saying this is normal. There are lakes that are drying up.

Now, some people say that this is all normal, and in part, they are right. Climate does change. The earth has cooling and warming cycles that it goes through naturally. But a 6 degree change (the difference between current temp and the last ice age) takes thousands of years to occur naturally. The temp is changing in a matter of decades and at the current rate it will change 6 degrees in less than 2 centuries, far faster than is possible naturally.

You don't have to take my word for it. I'm just a guy who reads. But you should listen to the tens of thousands of educated scientists who spend their entire lives studying the climate. You should listen to the experts. Independent researchers are ALL saying the same thing, and have been for the last 45 years. They are all saying that humans are changing the climate on a global scale.

Quit listening to the media.
Quit listening to the 'researchers' that are hired by corporations and news agencies.
Quit listening to the politicians.

Listen to the people who know what they are talking about.

They're the ones NOT trying to buy votes or get you to buy a product.
 

wvbreamfisherman

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Things changed faster than this in the Medieval Warm Spell, and the Little Ice Age. During the MWS wine grapes were a major crop in Britain. Greenland was colonized by the Vikings. It wasn't called "Green" because it was covered in ice. The little Ice Age reversed those conditions causing crop losses and starvation in many places.

Conditions have been changing for well over a century. In "Life on the Mississippi" Twain talks about growing oranges around Natchez Miss. You can't do that in much of North Florida today.

No doubt that the climate is changing- my take is that the human component is very small, and dwarfed by changes in solar output, and if current speculation about a 30-50 year-long solar minimum is correct, we will be looking back on these days as paradisical.
 

dinosaur

troublemaker
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So, what do you think of the newest group of "scientific" study that conjectures another mini-ICE AGE due to reduced sun spot activity?
 

wvbreamfisherman

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So, what do you think of the newest group of "scientific" study that conjectures another mini-ICE AGE due to reduced sun spot activity?
Plausible, but unproven. The correlation between sunspots and temperature is pretty strong, but still might be just correlation, not causation.

I'll say that another Little Ice Age, would be a helluva lot worse for civilization than slow warming.
 

Grandpa

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So, what do you think of the newest group of "scientific" study that conjectures another mini-ICE AGE due to reduced sun spot activity?
The folks in the NE think we are already in a mini ice age while out here in the west, we think prepostorous. Ten years from now it will be us getting hammered with ice and snow while they dream of a white Christmas. (Provided the earth doesn't self destruct by then)
 

Pathfinder1

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Actually, we can't agree on this either. Just depends on which set of lies you want to listen to. World weather temps have been slightly decreasing since 1998, per many national weather experts. I don't know because I'm not a national weather expert. I do know I hear both reports so someone is lying.



Hi...


You're right. If a polititian is involved, so is lying...!!
 

stm1957

NotMy1stRodeo
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Far western Colorado
I visited Glacier National Park when I was 11 yrs. old. At that time most of the glaciers there were "in retreat", but back then it was thought to be just a down swing in their natural cycle. That down swing has steady increased during the past 40+ yrs. to the point that many of the glaciers I saw back then are now gone, and the few remaining may be gone as well within the next 10 yrs.

Do I think global warming is real? Of course I do. According to scientists from many different disciplines, average worldwide temperatures have risen much faster in the last 60 yrs. than they did at any time previously within the last 2000 years. Do I think this will cause climate change? Most definitely… How can it not? But that change in climate will affect various areas of the planet differently. Some places will get warmer, some will get cooler. Some places will get dryer, some will get wetter. But I think it's obvious that things will change. And to that regard I have mixed feelings, which I will try to explain.

Personally, I don't want to see the glaciers and their associated flora and fauna disappear. I don't want to see deserts form in areas that have always been green for at least a part of the year. I don't want to see fires decimate dried out old growth forests where I have always camped and hunted. I want things to stay the way they are, because honestly, I don't like change… It's inconvenient.

But unfortunately, change is inevitable. The earth is in a constant state of change and has been since the very beginning. It's the only reason that we, as a species, even exist.

The first living things on this planet were mostly obligate anaerobic bacteria. They thrived in an environment of very little to no oxygen for many millions of years. Then cyanobacteria arose and in addition to adding the color green to the landscape they also added vast amounts of oxygen to the atmosphere. Unfortunately oxygen is toxic to most of those earliest forms of anaerobic bacteria, and they suffered a mass die-off. This was the first time that one life form modified the global environment to the significant detriment of another life form. Cyanobacteria eventually developed chloroplasts and because of those chloroplasts aquatic and terrestrial green plants appeared and with them the atmospheric level of oxygen increased further. With all the new available oxygen, organisms developed that could thrive using oxygen to turn consumable nutrients into energy and body structures. These were the very earliest protozoans. And from those protozoans came the earliest members of the "Animalia Kingdom", at first only in the seas, but later in fresh waters and eventually on the terra firma. One of those primitive emergent "animal" life forms is our earliest ancestor.

During the Paleozoic Era, and especially during it's "carboniferous period", most of the land areas of the planet were a vast hot, humid, and incredibly dense rain forest with plants growing on top of the dead and decaying layers of earlier plants. Because of this, the atmosphere was so heavily oxygenated that huge insects, myriapods, and arachnids were not only possible, but common. The diversity of animal life in the ocean was diverse and thriving as well. But for some reason the climate drastically cooled and dried out and the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse happened. Another wide spread mass die-off… One that we take advantage of today with our almost total reliance on fossil fuels (hydrocarbons) that were formed from this vast biomass of decaying plant and animal matter. Certainly another time that drastic climate change worked to our (albeit much later) benefit.

Without going on ad infinitum about the history of life on this planet I will say this: Many things can cause dramatic climate change; wide spread volcanism, continental drift, increases or decreases in solar activity, wide spread fire events, cosmic impacts, variations in the earths tilt and its orbit around the sun, and variations in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, the last of which can be caused by life itself. All of these we consider natural phenomenon, and all of which eventually resulted in a more diversified and thriving biosphere.

Human activity is at least partially responsible for the current "global warming" condition… That I do believe. But what I have trouble wrapping my head around is the belief that, in the grander scheme of things, it is (in anyway at all) "unnatural"…

Unless you believe that the human species is some sort of alien interloper on this planet, then we too are very much a part of nature. That being said, it stands to reason that all of our actions and their consequences are, in fact, the results of our natural evolution. We climbed out of trees, started walking upright, developed language, invented tools, used tools to create civilizations, harnessed the power of fire, and started consuming burnable fuel sources, including fossil fuels, to keep ourselves warm and to power our subsequent inventions. But just like those earliest forms of cyanobacteria, our evolution is having an undesirable effect on many species, including ourselves… Undesirable, that is, if you are like me and are a fan of the current state of homeostasis.

But ultimately, climate change and the associated environmental impacts are inevitable. When major environmental changes occur for whatever reason, organisms can do one of four things; migrate to an area less affected, stay put and adapt as best they can, evolve in a way that takes advantage of the change, or perish.

Sadly, I see very few signs, now or in the near future, that humanity is willing to modify its collective way of life in a fashion that will, at least for the time being, preserve the currently perceived "natural environment". In that case, we need to be willing to accept and adapt to the eventual consequences of significant global changes.

I'm sure in the long term we will make it through this dilemma because we will eventually evolve our thinking, our behaviors, and probably even our physiology. And if our past biological history is any indication, we will morph into a new and improved version of our species…"Homo Sapiens 2.0, if you will… Ultimately becoming a wiser and more symbiotic natural citizen of our planet's biosphere.

The most dire consequences often result in the most profound lessons. Perhaps humanity needs to be taught a very profound lesson?
Although the lyrics of this song have nothing what so ever to do with this topic, I find them ironically very relevant to this discussion:

You can't always get what you want.
You can't always get what you want.
But if you try sometimes you just might find...
You get what you need.

Mick Jagger & Keith Richards
 
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dinosaur

troublemaker
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You know, I appreciate and respect all of the answers given here with the possible exception of the last one concerning Keith Richards. But that one was given tongue-in cheek by someone who apparently possesses a sense of humor.

Since the seventies, scientists have been telling us that we are in for doom one way or another. A new Ice Age, Global Warming that will wipe us off the face of the earth, now Global Climate Change like it's never happened before.

The truly amazing thing is that we listen to politicians posturing how we, as humans, have such an amazing affect on our environment. I'm not saying it is a bad idea to watch the amount of plastics we use and burn. I don't think it is a good idea to produce sealed cell Styrofoam unless we can cut it and use it to retain moisture in the soil in areas where it is necessary to grow crops. I don't have a problem with fossil fuels because we are going to run out soon and then we will have to revert to alcohol which I have been producing for the last forty years.

The fact is that the studies that have taken place over the last fifty years have been financed by the government. The way they do this is to provide scientists with a set of parameters and tell these "scientists" what results they are looking for.

The "scientists" in turn, wishing to continue to be funded, find ways to discover results within the parameters given by the funding body, a.k.a., the government. They find ways and it takes us a bit to discover the fallacy in their findings.

I love this forum because it has such intelligent people. I have tried my best to find anyone who would buy the premise that we are responsible for weather patterns and global anything.

I know it is not a good idea to burn diesel fuel so it creates smoke clouds. You can't breathe it. I also know that burning wood for heat has been around for a very long time and has had no adverse affect on the climate. It creates heat, moisture and potash. Which one is bad for the environment?

I have learned all I needed to learn here and thank you all so much for participating in this exercise of intelligent thought. I am impressed and very happy to know all of you.

Oh, Newanderthal, your dissertation was perfect. God bless you.
 

stm1957

NotMy1stRodeo
Messages
80
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Location
Far western Colorado
Since the seventies, scientists have been telling us that we are in for doom one way or another. A new Ice Age, Global Warming that will wipe us off the face of the earth, now Global Climate Change like it's never happened before....

...The fact is that the studies that have taken place over the last fifty years have been financed by the government. The way they do this is to provide scientists with a set of parameters and tell these "scientists" what results they are looking for.

The "scientists" in turn, wishing to continue to be funded, find ways to discover results within the parameters given by the funding body, a.k.a., the government. They find ways and it takes us a bit to discover the fallacy in their findings.

I love this forum because it has such intelligent people. I have tried my best to find anyone who would buy the premise that we are responsible for weather patterns and global anything.
Ok, I have to ask?
I've heard both sides of this debate for years... But doesn't the "camp" that keeps saying, "Don't believe the liberal politicians and their lackeys, the government instituted Environmental Agencies and their second rate scientific toadies, that want us us to believe that the sky is falling, and that we somehow caused it..." seem to have the most obvious ulterior motive?

Why would a government that is supposed to be all about economic growth, technological development, and preserving America's place as the World's most influential nation, want to create and fund institutions that may call into question the "buy now, pay later" and "over consumption is not only good, it's damn-right American" status quo mentality that we have embraced since the 1950's?

Why would any segment of our glutenous Governmental Leviathan want to in any way encourage a new national mindset that advocates; down-sizing our collective lifestyle, minimizing our carbon foot print, and lessening our impact on the global environment, unless there is something more at stake than short term economic prosperity?

What is the "Government's" motive for wanting us to believe that Global Warming is a reality?

What are the motives of Capitalist "Establishment" nay-sayers?


Don't get me wrong... They are two sides of a very counterfeit coin that a wise man would never bet on, but they both seem to think that they are "all knowing and all seeing".

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
......John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton
 
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